FILTER:
| Type | Event | Date | Day+1 | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr | Oil | Context / Notes |
|---|
* Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ, LPL Research, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Invesco, AllianzGI, iSectors, Dunham Associates, Fidelity, Benzinga/VOO.
* ⚠ Distorted = returns impacted by unrelated macro events (dot-com crash, COVID, LTCM, rate hikes). Excluded from averages.
* 🔵 Proxy/Support events = U.S. did NOT directly fire weapons. Market reaction driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not direct U.S. engagement.
* "Direct War" averages exclude distorted 1-yr (Afghanistan) and 3/6-mo (Soleimani) entries.
* ⚠ Distorted = returns impacted by unrelated macro events (dot-com crash, COVID, LTCM, rate hikes). Excluded from averages.
* 🔵 Proxy/Support events = U.S. did NOT directly fire weapons. Market reaction driven by geopolitical uncertainty, not direct U.S. engagement.
* "Direct War" averages exclude distorted 1-yr (Afghanistan) and 3/6-mo (Soleimani) entries.
Average S&P 500 Return — Direct Wars Only (excl. macro-distorted outliers)
Day+1 Return by Event Type
1-Year Return After Each Event
Avg 1-Year Return by Engagement Type